The primary purpose of this cricket making a bet technique is to strike that balance amongst risk and reward, supporting you maximise your returns and minimise the degree of volatility.
From a sports activities sports making a bet standpoint, this technique seeks to help you find the highest quality amount you can stake on a particular bet without risking your bankroll.
For the Kelly Criterion to art work, you want to difficulty withinside the possibility (or the expected risk) of a bet to go back again through. Only then are you capable of stake more on a preference with a higher possibility of triumphing, and likewise, stake an awful lot much less on a bet that doesn’t have as an entire lot of a risk to go back again through.
Coming up with this possibility might require you to thoroughly apprehend the sport/game enthusiasts involved, and consequently, it's miles important that you are purpose and sensible to your judgement.
As you would possibly’ve understood, there’s no unique method to that ‘expected risk’ of a bet triumphing, and this is wherein the Kelly Criterion cricket making a bet technique turns into complex. Unless you can put off non-public bias and assign a bet its ‘real’ possibility with accuracy, the Kelly Criterion won’t art work the way it is supposed to.
The Kelly Criterion Formula
(bp-q)/b = f
b= odds (in decimal)-1
p= expected risk of the bet triumphing
q= expected risk of the bet losing
f= percentage of your bankroll you can stake on the bet
Below is an example:
Let’s say you want to area a bet on India vs Australia, with the Men in Blue assigned odds of three.0. According to you, the opportunities of India triumphing is 60%. So, the opportunity of India now now no longer triumphing is obviously 40%.
Applying the additives to this example:
b= (three -1) = 2.0
p= 60% = 0.6
q= 40% = 0.4
Therefore, f= (bp-q)/b = (1.2-0.4)/2 = 0.4
Based on this additives, you need to otherwise be staking 0.4 or 40% of your bankroll on the bet. This is that sweet spot wherein, mathematically and in an incredible global, you can maximise your enjoy the bet and minimise the risk.